Insight: Will new rules in Myanmar election bring new changes?

Myanmar held the first phase of its general election on December 28, with the second and third phases to come in the near future.

This marks a significant move by the ruling authorities to restore stability and promote political transition, nearly five years after the military declared a state of emergency and seized power on February 1, 2021.

Compared to those for the past elections, the rules and arrangements for this election have undergone some changes and adjustments. Analyzing the changes helps in better understanding this election.

From "winner-takes-all" to mixed system

The most significant change is the adoption of a mixed system combining "first-past-the-post" and "proportional representation".

The "first-past-the-post" system is a "winner-takes-all" electoral system where the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the parliamentary seat. This was the system used in all previous Myanmar elections. "Proportional representation" allocates seats based on the percentage of votes each party receives in a constituency.

In the election, all 330 seats in the House of Representatives (Pyithu Hluttaw) will be granted via the first-past-the-post system. For the 110 seats in the House of Nationalities (Amyotha Hluttaw), 84 will adopt first-past-the-post, and 26 will use proportional representation. Similarly, for the 364 seats in the state/region parliaments, 322 will be allocated by first-past-the-post and 42 by proportional representation.

While the new rules may seem complex, their goal is clear: to ensure victory for political parties representing the military's interests while providing a path for smaller and medium-sized parties to participate in governance. The proportional representation arrangements in the House of Nationalities and local parliaments, in particular, reflect the military's consideration to co-opt local political elites and ethnic minority forces through seat distribution.

Phased voting based on regional security

Due to ongoing instability and armed conflicts in parts of the country, the election cannot be held on a single day across the nation. Instead, voting will be conducted in batches and by region.

The first phase is scheduled for December 28, 2025, in 102 townships. The second phase is set for January 11, 2026, in 100 townships, and the third phase for January 25, 2026, in 72 townships. Military personnel, students, and overseas voters unable to vote on these dates cast their ballots in early December.

Furthermore, this election is the first to employ an electronic voting system. Voters use voting machines to cast their ballots, and individual polling stations can tally and announce results on the same day when voting ends. However, the official final results will be announced only after all three phases of voting are completed.

Change and continuity under military dominance

Since its independence in 1948, Myanmar has held three major elections entirely under military dominance. The 1990 election was held by the military after its 1988 takeover to stabilize the situation and fulfill a promise to "return power to the people." Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won a landslide victory. The military government, citing the lack of a constitution, proposed "drafting a constitution before power transfer" and refused to hand over power to the NLD.

The 2010 election was held by the military junta after completing the drafting and referendum of the 2008 constitution. With the NLD threat excluded, the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won the election. The 2025-26 election continues to follow the 2008 constitution in general. Although the electoral rules are sort of modified, this election again excludes the NLD, in a bid to achieve an outcome favorable to the military.

On the whole, the latter two elections both had a constitutional basis and excluded opposition forces from participating. If the current election can be completed smoothly, the military is expected to transfer power to the winner.

Certainty and uncertainty in the future

It is certain that the election will not thoroughly mend Myanmar's domestic divisions or quell unrest. It may even give rise to new confrontations and conflicts in some areas at times. It is also foreseeable that the international community, particularly Western nations, will not immediately recognize the electoral results.

Similar to attitudes towards the 2010 election, most countries are likely to adopt a cautious "wait-and-see" approach, choosing an "action-for-action" strategy based on the performance of the new "democratically elected" government. Therefore, there remains significant uncertainty about what changes the 2025-26 election will bring to Myanmar's internal and external environments.

Despite the difficulties and uncertainties, this election might represent an opportunity to break down the current political deadlock in Myanmar, after more than four years of military administration and political turmoil.

Writing by Kong Peng (assistant researcher at the Institute of Myanmar Studies, Yunnan University) and Dong Yujie (graduate student at the School of Foreign Languages, Yunnan University); Editing by Zhang Yinglin, Liu Ziyu and Li Tao; Translating by Wang Shixue

(The article represents the authors' personal views and does not necessarily reflect the stance of Mekong News Network, YICC.)