Failure of Manila's anti-China bloc in S. China Sea is determined

The Philippines and Vietnam on Tuesday signed two memorandums of understanding (MOUs) on maritime "cooperation" in the South China Sea during Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s state visit to Hanoi.

Against the backdrop of Beijing-Manila recent tensions, the pacts – the first seeking to prevent untoward incidents in the region and the second aiming to improve cooperation between their coast guards – are seen by many as part of the Philippines' attempt to woo Vietnam into a united front against China.

"Vietnam can become a pivotal component of 'ASEAN minilateral' cooperation on the South China Sea disputes," Philippine Daily Inquirer said in an opinion. The newspaper stressed the importance of diplomatic coordination between the Philippines and Vietnam within and beyond ASEAN to ensure disputes are managed through UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, rather than "Beijing's bogus doctrines."

It is not the first time the Philippines has pushed for an alignment with its neighbors at the COC negotiation table – in an attempt to leverage collective influences against pro-China clauses. The Philippine government had approached Vietnam and Malaysia to discuss creating a separate COC, Marcos said in November last year. The Manila-Hanoi pacts are seen as the Philippine government's latest attempt to isolate Beijing in the South China Sea.

Manila's endeavor to form an anti-Beijing clique is beset with insurmountable difficulties.

To begin with, any departure from the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) framework and its spirit – of which formulating a COC is an important task – will be null and void. At present, the China-ASEAN COC is going on the right track – all parties announced the official launch of the third reading of the text of the COC in October last year, striving to conclude the COC at an early date. Manila's attempt to form a separate COC, which will only complicate and escalate the situation, does not conform to the DOC spirit and thus will not be recognized.

In addition, unlike the Philippines, most countries in the South China Sea have no intention to act hostile against China. They prefer a diplomatic way to settle their territorial disputes without damaging bilateral ties with China. This means regional countries are unlikely to "gang up" with Manila against Beijing.

Take Vietnam as an example. The China Coast Guard and the Vietnam Coast Guard pledged to deepen pragmatic maritime cooperation and handle maritime emergencies properly during the seventh high-level work meeting last December. Hanoi has no reason to risk regional peace and its traditional friendship with Beijing to form a separate COC with Manila.

Vietnam's signing MOUs with the Philippines does not mean they are united against China. "Vietnam will seek to avoid giving Beijing the impression that it's 'ganging up' with Manila against it in the South China Sea," Koh was quoted as saying by The Straits Times.

Moreover, China, in recent years, has seen growing influences in the region. In this context, the importance of sharing China's development dividends far outweighs that of colluding with the Philippines in the geopolitical game. According to a survey the Merdeka Center conducted last November, the Malaysian public is more concerned about the new government's economic performance than its geopolitical maneuvering.

While the Philippines has been trying to woo neighboring countries into separate COC against China, most countries in the South China Sea have no reason to sacrifice regional peace and their potential for economic growth for Manila's anti-Beijing clique.

Manila's attempts to gang up against China do not conform to the DOC and have no market in the South China Sea. Its failure is determined.