ELECTIONS IN HIMALAYAN STATES: ISSUES AND IMPACT

In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Himalayan states had diverse experiences. It was a mixed bag of results. North-East states have 25 Lok Sabha seats. BJP won 13 and its allies (Asom Gana Parishad & United Peoples Party Liberal) one each in Assam only.

The Indian National Congress won 7 and three regional parties, Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), , Voice of the People’s Party (VPP) and Sikkim Krantikari Morcha won one seat each in Mizoram, Meghalaya and Sikkim respectively. BJP’s ally National People’s Party lost both in Meghalaya and did not open its account in any other state. In 2019, BJP had won 14, the Congress 4 and the remaining 7 seats were secured by the state parties and independents.

Two of the Himalayan states had concurrent Assembly elections – Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. BJP could celebrate for retaining the border state of Arunachal Pradesh and not losing many seats from the previous election. SKM had a landslide victory in Sikkim. Congress was patting itself on the back for making a comeback in the North East with seven seats and denying BJP a walkover. Although the results in the North-east are similar to the rest of India, the issues and the impact of the just- concluded elections are remarkably different. Let us see how.

North-East region recorded massive turnout in the national elections compared to the rest of India. The North-Eastern states often regarded as separatists where in the majority of the states, the militants dictated the voters to stay away from elections. But this time around, people of the North-East voted with hope, pride and enthusiasm. Moreover, North-East has been in the national and international attention for devastating ethnic violence in Manipur. Here, both seats of Inner and Outer Manipur went to Congress. The frustration and anger against BJP was palpable for mishandling the sectarian violence in the state. The pathetic consequence of burning and the bloodshed, particularly atrocities against women, was vivid in the minds of voters. While the impact of the election may be satisfactory as the BJP and its allies were defeated in Manipur, the challenge of rehabilitation and reconciliation is formidable.

In Nagaland, the Eastern Nagaland’s People’s Organisation (ENPO) had asked the people to abstain from voting in support of its demand. The demand was for a separate state comprising 6 districts in the eastern region of Nagaland. People in these six districts add to four lakh voters who remained indoors in response to the boycott call. The demand may surge sooner unless it is handled well. The mixed verdict points to the need of understanding the unique issues and changing trends in the region. This time around the voting was polarised as Christians and Muslims shifted to Congress. Christians voted against BJP in Christian-majority states of Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Kuki and Naga-dominated hill districts of Manipur. The Assam Chief Minister, NEDA Convener (NDA has a chapter in the North- East called North-East Democratic Alliance, NEDA), realised this pattern of voting, “leaders of a particular religion openly worked against BJP and NDA in Nagaland, Manipur and Meghalaya. That religion has many followers in those states. That made the difference.”

To be sure, the results reflect the North-East region’s complex and contrasting political dynamics influenced by religious and ethnic sentiments. This trend was also reflected in the state of Assam. Congress won in Jorhat and Dhubri, both Muslim-dominated constituencies. This underlined the demographic changes in Assam, as claimed by Sarma. Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim which had Assembly elections were won by BJP and SKM. The Arunachal Chief Minister Pema Khandu of BJP and the Sikkim CM Prem Singh Tamang of SKM will have their hands full. They will have to focus on development of infrastructure, generation of employment etc. Both the states constitute an important part in the Act East Policy of Govt of India. Beijing’s belligerence and Myanmar’s continued unrest will impact the border states. North-East will remain critical to all political parties. The lessons of this election will surely impact the BJP’s approaches to the North-East. The intellectual acuity to manage the interplay between religion, ethnicity and culture will determine the political success in this dynamic and diverse region.

North-East states, though small in size and distant from the Centre, have to be integrated with the Union and other states through greater interaction. One way could be to set up branches of national institutions that will facilitate people from other states working in the North-East and vice-e-versa. In Himachal Pradesh, BJP won all the four seats for the third consecutive term although margins of victory were a bit reduced. The loss of Congress could be attributed to the absence of a popular and a formidable leader like late Virbhadra Singh. Also, the internal rivalry in the Congress persists.

During the Rajya Sabha election, six MLAs had defected from the party. However, in the by-elections for the MLAs, held along with Lok Sabha elections, Congress won four and BJP two. The strength of Congress in Himachal is 38 out of the total strength of 65. The Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister said that elections were fought on different issues for Parliament and Assembly. In Uttarakhand, again, all the five seats went to BJP – Tehri Garhwal, Almora, Garhwal, Nainital-Udham Singh Nagar and Haridwar. In this hill state, power had alternated between BJP and Congress earlier. But BJP has consolidated since. Issues like migration, unemployment, paper leaks, Agniveer dominated the electoral discourse. But UCC seemed to have been the game- changer. 

The Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Dhami said that the state had received, “a historic third mandate”. In Darjeeling, West Bengal, BJP won by securing 51.18% against TMC’s 37.73%. The BJP candidate Raju Bista was supported by hill parties like Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) and Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF) and a few others. His vote share however fell by more than half. Remember that Darjeeling is the constituency which had provided a foothold to the BJP in West Bengal politics since 2009. In Jammu & Kashmir, the first Parliament elections were held after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. BJP and NC won two seats each and an independent got one.

Notably, two former CMs lost - Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. Omar lost to Abdul Sheikh Rashid Engineer, who has been incarcerated in Tihar since 2019 in a case of money laundering related to terror funding. His victory says quite a bit about continued sympathy for separatists. This looks ominous for the state unless it was a vote against Omar. Terrorist violence has recurred in the state coinciding with the conclusion of Parliament elections. It may be venting frustration against the re-election of the current regime.

The Union Territory of Ladakh witnessed a three-cornered fight for the lone seat between BJP, Congress and an independent, Mohmad Haneefa who won the elections. In the past, Congress had won the seat six times and BJP in 2014 and 2019. BJP had dropped the sitting MP Tsering Namgyal and nominated Tashi Gyanson. Could it be the reason for their defeat? But Ladakh has been agitating for quite some time with four demands. They were: another Lok Sabha seat, statehood for Ladakh, inclusion in Sixth Schedule and scope for local recruitment. Ladakhis from Buddhist-dominated Leh and Muslim-majority Kargil have been protesting in unity.

Previously, elections in Ladakh have been influenced by religion and regional affinities. But this time it was different, as the winning candidate Haneefa said that, “it is an issue-based election”. He asserted that he will take the four-point agenda to the Parliament and continue to agitate for it. The issues in Ladakh should not be left in limbo.

Source: Himalayan News Chronicle